Pure Guesswork

Distribution of EURUSD since Sunday night opening (hourly bars):

1.2820 x
1.2815 x
1.2810 x x x
1.2805 x x x x x x
1.2800 x x x x x x x x
1.2795 x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2790 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2785 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2780 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2775 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2770 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2765 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2760 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2755 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2750 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2745 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2740 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2735 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2730 x x x x x x x
1.2725 x x x x x x x
1.2720 x x x
1.2715 x x
1.2710 x x
1.2705 x x
1.2700 x x x x
1.2695 x x x x x x x
1.2690 x x x x x x x
1.2685 x x x x x x
1.2680 x x x
1.2675 x x
1.2670 x
1.2665 x

Trading around 1.2670.

One possible downside pattern that would call for a further move down to 1.2478.

Charts from yesterday afternoon:

And a 1 hour chart from this morning:

Notice how prices since Sunday night have corresponded with the internal levels between the 2.618 and 4.236 targets.

In response to this this post from Josh Brown of a Cavafy poem, Blaise Cendrar's poem to his love (back in Paris), written on a trip to Brazil (1924).

YOU ARE LOVELIER THAN THE SKY AND THE SEA

When you are in love you must leave
Leave your wife leave your child
Leave your friend leave your sweetheart
Leave your lover
When you're in love you must leave

The world is full of black men and black women
Of women men men women
Look at the fine shops
That cab that man that woman that cab
And all the beautiful things to buy

There is the the air the wind
The mountains the water sky earth
Children animals
Plants and coal

Learn to sell buy resell
Give take give take
When you're in love you must know how
To sing run eat drink
Whistle
And learn to work

When you're in love you must leave
Don't build a nest between two breasts
Breathe walk leave go away

I take my bath and I look
I see the mouth I know
The hand the leg The the eye
I take my bath and look

The whole world is always there
Life full of surprising things
I leave the drugstore
I have just weighed myself
I weigh my 80 kilos
I love you

BLAISE CENDRARS
Feuilles de route (Travel Notes)
1924

February Gold, a short term downside pattern (base formed a few days ago) seems to have completed itself around 1566.

An update of the chart posted yesterday. Same pattern still seems to be in play, with sideways price action gravitating towards the 2.618 Fibonacci level. More likely to see a bounce up from here before the pattern could continue down to the next target.

Price distribution hourly bars from Asian open, December 14 until Dec 16, 6:00 AM EST.

1.3070 x
1.3060 x x x
1.3050 x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3040 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3030 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x < - - 2.618 = 1.3036
1.3020 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3010 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3000 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2990 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2980 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2970 x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2960 x x x x x x x
1.2950 x x x
1.2940 x x

More likely to see a bounce up from here before the pattern could continue down to the next target.

A short term impulsive pattern to the downside which began with a base formed last Friday. Looking for 1.2790.

Price distribution since Monday Asian open. Notice the two distributions around the 1.618 and 2.618 levels:

1.3380 x x
1.3370 x x x x
1.3360 x x x x x x x x <-- midpoint (50%) of base
1.3350 x x x x x x x x
1.3340 x x x x x x x
1.3330 x x x x x
1.3320 x x x
1.3310 x x x
1.3300 x x x
1.3290 x x x
1.3280 x x x x x
1.3270 x x x x x
1.3260 x x x x x x
1.3250 x x x x x x x
1.3240 x x x x
1.3230 x x x x
1.3220 x x x x x x
1.3210 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3200 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3190 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x <-- 1.618
1.3180 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3170 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3160 x x x x x x x
1.3150 x
1.3140 x
1.3130 x
1.3120 x
1.3110 x
1.3100 x x x x x
1.3090 x x x x x
1.3080 x x x x x
1.3070 x x x x x
1.3060 x x x x x x
1.3050 x x x x x x x x x
1.3040 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3030 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x <-- 2.618
1.3020 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3010 x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3000 x x x x x x x x
1.2990 x x x x x x x x
1.2980 x x x x x x x
1.2970 x x x x x x
1.2960 x x x x x
1.2950 x x
1.2940 x x

A weekly chart of the nearest gold future showing an impulsive move beginning from a base formed during the summer of 2010. Early waves were roughly contained within the 2.618 and 1.618 targets. The next higher target (4.236 times the base) did not provide resistance. As sometimes happens, the opposite occurred. Once through this level, the market moved almost vertically, up 300 dollars in a little over 3 weeks. The next level was 6.854 times the base, around 1900. Here price action became erratic as the move finally exhausted itself. (A similar pattern played out in EURUSD in late 2007-early 2008.)

In the move off this high, the 4.236 level, ignored by the market on the way up, has become support on the way down. We have not closed on a weekly basis below that level (around 1618).

If we look at the internal Fibonacci levels of the entire impulsive move, we can see that the spike low in late September failed at the 50% level. We are approaching once more the 1618 level, approximately 38.2% of the entire impulsive move. A weekly close below this level could see us working down towards the earlier spike low and possibly lower. A 61.8% retracement would take us to around 1440.

Playing with a Fibonacci pattern noted by @NicTrades: