Cable Delta Wave Completed
From the impulsive move begun last week:
See how the 1.618 delta level provided an area of (rough) support.
Entire movement (with theoretical high):
Entire movement with actual high (9 pips above theoretical high):
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January 30, 2008
January 23, 2008
S&P trying again to break to upside
Euro triangle around a fibonacci area of attraction
First, weekly:
And then a closer look on daily:
January 18, 2008
10 Yr Yield downside target reached
Matching a 2.618 delta downside level on the S&P yesterday:
On the nose.
January 17, 2008
Capitulation on S&P?
Obviously we won't have to wait long to find out. Tomorrow could very well prove this chart meaningless.
Gold--January 17, 2008
Updated from January 14th entry:
A shot from MT4 showing HAS providing support on daily chart.
Euribor--January 17, 2008
On DJ Newswire this morning there is a quote from a fixed income analyst saying, "Euribors are getting numb to an ECB that barks but refuses to bite. The chart of the June Euribor future below demonstrates this. A 30 basis point move since Friday.
And then the September future:
January 16, 2008
Gulf States May Co-ordinate Revaluation
Bloomberg is reporting that the Gulf States may move to a co-ordinated revaluation. Kuwait has already moved to valuing its dinar against a basket of currencies, including the dollar, GBP and euro. The other gulf states--Saudia Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain and Oman--would simply revalue their currencies up against the dollar. This article is based on a report issued from the Singapore branch of the UK bank, Standard Chartered Plc.
Daily Chart of 10 Yr Treasury--January 15, 2008
If the pattern on this chart is valid, the 10 year treasury is rapidly approaching a 2.618 delta target. Yesterday afternoon (January 15) it reached 3.70%. This morning at 6:00 AM EST it is trading at 3.64%. The 2 year, which has a pattern with a 2.25% goal, is at 2.46%. Libor rates, which very recently were trading an average of 60-75 basis points above FF rates, are now trading below current FF rates, approximately 100 basis points lower than they were a month ago.
January 15, 2008
S & P 500 support to be tested
A trendline from the March 2007 to the August 2007 held last week.
But today it might possibly be tested again.
Cable Shows Life--January 15, 2008
The short covering rally has begun in cable, fueled by the release of UK CPI figures remaining above BOE target and negative US retail sales numbers. But perhaps just as important is the maintenance of the support at 1.9525-35 mentioned in yesterday's post.
Last nights low around 1.9525 could be seen as a beta, with the previous high in the european morning around 1.9646 as alpha.
First, a 30 minute chart:
And to add some perspective, a 4 hour chart:
January 14, 2008
Weekly Gold Chart with delta wave projected above 1000
Alpha: 730.20 in May of 2006
Beta: 543.00 in June of 2006.
The delta 1.618 target would be 845.80. High on November 4, 2007 was 845.40.
The delta 2.518 target would be 1033.00.
And on the daily...
Cable Update-January 14, 2008
The cable rally did not happen last week, but the pattern still holds. Market is tremendously oversold and lingering directly above the 61.8% retracement of the entire delta wave rally from October 2006 until November 2007.
January 9, 2008
Cable-January 9, 2008
UPDATE at 9;00 AM
Another pattern--the original price pulse from December charts.
See posts when pattern first charted:
UPDATE at 1:30 PM
And an alternative possiblity:
(See entry from December 19.)
UPDATE at 3:40 PM
Long term going back to rally from October 2006.
January 7, 2008
Cable
Euro chart update
Eurgbp Update
Still refusing to break clearly above the 4.236 delta level.
S&P 500 Update
The bounce up off the 2.618 level did not hold Friday afternoon.
Next stop below 1400?
Markit ABX Indices
John Percival notes that while these indices dipped again last week, they failed to make new lows. Does this presage a return to a coming return to a more robust risk appetite in the markets?
AAA:
BBB:
January 4, 2008
S&P 500
Selling off pitilessly. But found a downward price pulse with a delta 2.618 level near the lows made within the last half hour. Will it hold? Or is this simply a pause before a continued afternoon of selling.
Next stop down would be below 1400.
Euro rises to 78.6% retracement level
And then a pause. Action is on disappointing US employment figures for December. Unemployment rate came in at 5%. November was 4.7%, and a rise to 4.8% was expected. This was ultimately more surprising than the poor payroll number, which printed at +18k, less than the consensus expectations (50k, but ranged from 30k to 70k). Last month was revised up 21k to 115k 3 month average is still 97k. Of course all these numbers will probably be revised.
For now, that 78.6% level is holding.
January 3, 2008
EurGbp Update
January 2, 2008
EurGbp Nearing 4.236 Target on Weekly Chart
Detail on 8 hour chart:
