USDJPY--Sunday afternoon, April 13, 2008
The impulsive move seen on a weekly chart, the base being formed in late November through the end of December 2007.
And seen in more detail on a daily chart.
The retracement since the low in mid March, died out at a 38.2% retracement of the entire impulsive move from beta to the 2.618 delta. The retracement was in two separate wave patterns, the last of which described an impulsive move itself as shown in the post of April 8, 2008. As it was not able to get beyond 38.2% (of the impulsive move, let alone the entire move), the downward trend has not truely been broken. Thus we are in a sort of no man's land, waiting either for a resumption of a down move, or evidence of a new base being built for an impulsive move which will break that barrier right below 103.
To complicate things more, the retracement down of the two wave move up has itself been about 38.2%.
The low came last Thursday, April 10th.
My best guess is that we will likely see a break of this low, below 100 yen. Then it will be time to consider whether a new base is being formed for a new move up (perhaps this new move down will be the beta of a new base), or whether the mid March lows below 96 yen will be broken.
UPDATE at 5:40 PM
The G7 statement has thrown a little fear into dollar shorts, with the knee jerk interpretation being that co-ordinated intervention is not out of the question. Most of the move has been against the euro (and sterling to a lesser degree). The move against yen and swiss franc has been much more muted. This initial reaction is almost certainly to be tested if there is no more evidence forthcoming that the CBs are serious about this.