GBPJPY--Thursday, August 28, 2008
Working on the last chart from the August 15th post:
This morning we had the following action (2 hour chart):
Is that it?
(For now, at least.)
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August 28, 2008
August 22, 2008
Euro--Friday, August 22, 2008
Update on pattern found in yesterday's post. The delta 1.618 target was a point of attraction after the impulsive rally. It traded higher but the level around 1.4890 seemed to be the shoulders level for a head and shoulders formation. Today's decline has been arrested near the top of the alpha-beta base at 1.4805. Although it traded below that level, it quickly snapped back above it. Seems to imply the uptrend is still in play. Further support at 1.4776 and 1.4753. Gets below 1.4740 and we are playing a different game.
August 21, 2008
EURUSD, Thursday, August 21, 2008
As indicated in this post from Monday, support for EURUSD was predicted around 1.4660-1.4670. The post on Tuesday, projecting a new base pattern for a move up was wrong. Or early. It now appears that the base pattern was still forming (with more back and forth action). A high at 1.4805 at the Wedensday Tokyo open could be seen as an alpha, with the 1.4670 low at the London close as beta.
If this pattern is correct then...
First delta target (1.618 of base) would be 1.4888. Hit this morning.
Second delta target (2.618) would be 1.5023.
And the third possible target (4.236) would be 1.5241.
Or the pattern could be wrong, like Tuesday's.
TWT.
August 19, 2008
EURUSD-Tuesday, August 19, 2008
15 minute chart:
August 18, 2008
EURUSD--Monday, August 18, 2008
Euro finding support at former fibonacci target?
And on a weekly chart, showing actual high at 1.6038.
August 15, 2008
GBPJPY--Friday August 15, 2008
An update on the posts of last week, specifically this one, and specifically this chart from last Tuesday:
The x-y-z (with x & z equal in length) formed an alpha pattern down. The subsequent move back up to 213.90 was the beta, with an impulsive delta move following. A chart from this morning:
The pattern of the impulsive move is easier to see on an hourly chart.
(1) Sunday night around the time of the Tokyo open the market fell through the alpha level but bounced at the 1.272 level. Never got very far into the base area however, losing energy at the 0.786 level.
(2) By Monday afternoon the alpha level had been broken again and now became resistance. Then the 1.272 area was broken and when that proved--after attempts to rally in the European morning session on Tuesday, August 12--to be resistance, the true impulsive move began.
(3) With only a short stay near the 1.618 level, the market fell swiftly to the 2.058 level, steadied for a few hours and then fell to the 2.618 target (during the Asian morning session of Wednesday).
(4) It bounced significantly from this level, up to the 2.058 level, then fell even more swiftly through it. It fell as low as the 3.33 Fibonacci level, before stabilizing around noon NY time.
(5) Since that time it has been gravitating up to the 2.618 significant delta target (205.16), trading sometimes above it, but mainly below it. At the moment it is trading above this line, having traded as high as 206.50 this morning, the highest its been since its last impulsive move down on Wednesday. Will it attempt a move to 207?
One last chart, the 4 hour chart showing a possible 4.236 delta target. Since the 2.618 target was so convincingly broken, and has not so much provided support as a point of gravity around which the market has gyrated, a new move down is not unlikely.
Next stop 199.76?
August 12, 2008
EURUSD, Tuesday Morning, August 12, 2008
Extended delta wave may have completed itself at the 6.854 level:
August 5, 2008
One last GBPJPY chart for the day, August 5, 2008
Ranging directly above the 2.618 target.
The minor fib level at211.83 should prove resistance, just as 212.87 provided resistance yesterday when the market ranged around the 1.618 level.
There is no support.
GBPJPY continued, Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Since the corrective top at 215.85...
Correction of a correction of a correction...
One possibility, with equal X and Z legs down:
Or are we going lower on this trip? Specifically below 209 (208.93 1.618 target).
Keying in on that 208.93 figure, it also shows up in another pattern.
An impulsive pattern with alpha low at 213.23 on July 30 and a beta high at 214.56 the next day.
The delta 1.618 target would be 212.41, and the market moving impulsively down last Friday, August 1, seemed to stabilize while oscillating around this level. Notice also that the high yesterday--that is to say, the high point of that oscillating period was at the 1.27 level (good entry level for short). Today it has moved impulsively again and now seems to be oscillating around the 2.618 delta target (211.08). But because it has broken this level, the chances are that it will continue another leg down. The next target, the 4.236 level is 208.93.
Which just happens to correspond exactly with the target of the larger corrective pattern seen in the chart immediatley above this one.
GBPJPY, Tuesday morning, August 5, 2008
These charts explore a pattern where the GBPJPY corrected in 3 waves since the high above 250 in July of 2007.
The final wave down seems to have a clearly definable impulsive nature, with an alpha-beta base, 221.26 (alpha) and 230.34 beta. This would project a 2.618 delta target around 206.57 and an extended 4.236 delta target at 191.88. The actual low on March 17, 2008 was 192.52, close enough for a move of over 3700 pips.
The second chart shows the "correction of the correction." Using the beta as the start of the impulsive move, and the actual low on March 17, the 61.8% retracement target is around 215.90. within 5 pips of the high on July 23 of this year.
Shown in more detail on a daily chart.
To be continued...