GBPJPY--Friday August 15, 2008
An update on the posts of last week, specifically this one, and specifically this chart from last Tuesday:
The x-y-z (with x & z equal in length) formed an alpha pattern down. The subsequent move back up to 213.90 was the beta, with an impulsive delta move following. A chart from this morning:
The pattern of the impulsive move is easier to see on an hourly chart.
(1) Sunday night around the time of the Tokyo open the market fell through the alpha level but bounced at the 1.272 level. Never got very far into the base area however, losing energy at the 0.786 level.
(2) By Monday afternoon the alpha level had been broken again and now became resistance. Then the 1.272 area was broken and when that proved--after attempts to rally in the European morning session on Tuesday, August 12--to be resistance, the true impulsive move began.
(3) With only a short stay near the 1.618 level, the market fell swiftly to the 2.058 level, steadied for a few hours and then fell to the 2.618 target (during the Asian morning session of Wednesday).
(4) It bounced significantly from this level, up to the 2.058 level, then fell even more swiftly through it. It fell as low as the 3.33 Fibonacci level, before stabilizing around noon NY time.
(5) Since that time it has been gravitating up to the 2.618 significant delta target (205.16), trading sometimes above it, but mainly below it. At the moment it is trading above this line, having traded as high as 206.50 this morning, the highest its been since its last impulsive move down on Wednesday. Will it attempt a move to 207?
One last chart, the 4 hour chart showing a possible 4.236 delta target. Since the 2.618 target was so convincingly broken, and has not so much provided support as a point of gravity around which the market has gyrated, a new move down is not unlikely.
Next stop 199.76?