Pure Guesswork

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 6:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Traded up to the 2.058 intermediate level. Resistance found here.
Seen more clearly in this 4 hour chart:

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 7:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Near the close. A nice rally, but this downtrend line on an hourly chart shows a reason not to get too excited just yet.

UPDATE--After the Close
The line is broken in the tremendous rush into stocks at the close--the reverse of the panic selling we have seen recently at the close. Panic buying.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 3:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

After an initial fall from the spike high this morning, USDJPY retraces 78.6% of that distance and fails again (at least so far).

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Still more to go on downside? The chart pattern does not look like a bottom. And a fibonacci projection calls for a target somewhere below 89.

A 30 minute chart shows how the pair had been trading around an intermediate fibonacci level (3.33--between 2.618 and 4.236) in a symmetrical triangle; and then, near the end of the Asian session, rallied up to the 2.618 level and failed signficantly there.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 8:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

An update on the pattern shown in this post from October 13th:

EURUSD has fallen this morning within 50 pips of the 2.618 delta target projected in the charts in that post. WIth a move of over 2500 pips, that puts the low today close enough to consider the target met. Time to look for signs of a bottoming process,

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 5:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

A bottom?

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

First leg of an impulsive move down from an alpha beta base. 1.618 delta target met last Friday. Modest rally off this low continues today.

First resistance is around 1.3610, the 1.272 level. Today this has been a sort of central point around which the market has traded, with a slight upward bias.

Next resistance will be the original alpha level around 1.3875, and if it gets through that level, 1.4090.

But if the pattern in the chart above is correct, we might see a resumption of the downtrend in euro against the dollar. The target would then be the the 2.618 delta. How far down with this pattern? Pretty far. How does 1.2280 sound?

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 9:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 8:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)