Pure Guesswork

First, an updated daily chart showing the impulsive move that ended near the 2.618 delta target on October 28:

Then a 4 hour chart showing the initial correction of this move, taking the market back to the 1.618 delta level on October 30--corresponding to a 38.2% correction of the entire impulsive move.

This move up was quickly retraced. Since then we have been in a 3 wave irregular downward correction of the initial upward correction. First a swift move down to about 50%, then a zig zag downward pattern that made up the irregular Y (or B) wave, with the irregular middle leg of this pattern reaching the 61.8% level. Finally this morning we seemed to have bottomed out around the 78.6% level.

On an hourly chart you can see the pattern more clearly. Note that a momentum study like RSI would show a regular rather than irregular 3 wave pattern, with a low at the point of X, then a high at Y and a lower low at Z.

Right now, on a short term basis, the market is a little extended and overbought. But it is quite likely we will see more upside after either a pullback or a pause at the current level. It should be noted that European stocks and US stock futures are rallying, the S&P continuing the upward flag pattern it has been forming since the impulsive move up in stocks on October 28. Stocks could break out of that pattern to the upside today. The euro would very likely follow.