Gold Update--Monday, November 17, 2008
The impulsive move that ended last March (the alpha beta base having been formed in 2006.
A chart from last April:
The retracement since then:
- A move down to the 38.2% retracement level ending in early May.
- A counter rally that fails to make a new high (ending in mid July)
- Another move down close to the 61.8% level ending the second week of September.
- Another rally--this time failing around the 23.6% level
- And since then another large move down, this time breaking through the 61.8% level. But importantly, on a weekly basis it has never closed below this level.
This key level is around $730.00, the original alpha top. If this level does not continue to hold on a weekly basis, then the next level of support would be somewhere around $650.00. $660.00 would be roughly a 76.4% retracement. $647.00 would be the 78.6% retracement.
If it does hold, then we may be building a base for a new move up.