Pure Guesswork: December 2008 Archives

EURUSD--Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Resting around the 2.058 (1.3644) level. Still on track for the 2.618 delta target of 1.3944.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 7:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

USDJPY--Friday, December 12, 2008

Delta 4.236 (89.00) target met.

Although there was a severe spike down to 88.15, a look at a 5 minute chart shows that even on this tight timespan there was no close below 89.00.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 9:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

New Hobby--Bowling

Bowling--View image

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 7:49 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

EURUSD--Friday, December 12, 2008

Going back to the question in the last chart of Tuesday's euro post, the answer is yes.

After the low in EURUSD in late October, the market formed a triangle formation through November. But that essentially ended with the lows around November 21. The subsequent move up to 1.3080 broke through the downtrend line and can now be seen as the alpha top of a newly forming base. The low at 1.2546 on December 4 (last Thursday) was the beta low. The impulsive move yesterday topped out at the 1.618 delta target. The next target--delta 2.618--would be at 1.3944.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 7:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

EURUSD--December 9, 2008

Catching up on the big picture in euro patterns.

A weekly chart that shows an alpha-beta base formed in September between 1.3878 and 1.4865.

Looking at this pattern on a daily chart--the 1.618 delta target was 1.3269. There was a low at 1.3257 on October 10 and a subsequent pullback. The 2.618 target was 1.2282. The lows made on October 27 and October 28 were within the "zone" of this target. The subsequent pullback took the market above the 1.618 downward target--in effect, a 32.8% retracement of the impulsive move down.

And in fact, when the target low is replaced by the actual low, the sharp 3 day retracement which culminated on October 30 was within 1 pip of a 38.2% retracement of the entire impuilsive move down from 1.4865.

The 1.272 target below the October low would take the market down to the November 2005 lows around 1.1640.
Projecting internal fibonacci levels down to that target shows the low in October as the 78.6% level of the move.

Since the October low we have been trading sideways in what appears to be a triangle pattern. But since late November, it is possible that the market has moved past that pattern and is setting up something new.