EURGBP--February 2, 2009
An impulsive move completed at the end of December, from an alpha-beta base in September/October.
Once it got above the delta 2.618 target (0.8994) on December 16th, the chart went parabolic as traders in thinning market conditions aimed for parity. But the delta 4.236 target (09800) level saw the rally run out of steam. In early January it fell even more swiftly than it had risen; by January 7th it had fallen back to the 2.618 level. It oscillated around that level for more than a week, then rallied again. A rally that failed at approximately 0.618 times the distance between the 4.236 and 2.618 delta levels (Which is to say that it failed at approximately the distance of the original alpha-beta base from the 2.618 delta level.) Since then it has fallen to a slightly lower low than the original decline in early January, and then bounced.
This sets up a possible head and shoulders pattern. At the moment the market is trading right around the 2.618 level of attraction.