EURUSD--Friday Morning (US), February 20, 2009
After the rally off the low on Wednesday, described by the impulsive pattern noted yesterday, a pullback stopped at the 0.786 retracement.
The "completion" on Wednesday of a medium term downtrend pattern which began in early January (charted initially on February 2 and followed with subsequent posts after that) was followed by a reasonable 200 pip plus rally.
And yet we are betwixt and between as far as projecting any sustained rally from this point. The pattern was confirmed--the bounce occurred less than 10 pips from the projected bottom. In a move of close to 1300 pips, that is fairly signifcant. And while a 2.618 target is often the completion of a move, it is certainly possible that this is merely a stop along the way.
This is what we have so far:
But if the downward pattern asserts itself once more, this is where we could be going:
The chances of this happening increase the more times passes without EURUSD rallying above 1.28.