Pure Guesswork

Update on this post from the start of the present rally on March 10. So far nothing has happened to change the pattern shown in the charts from that post.

Here is an updated chart with the same Fibonacci pattern projected onto it.

• An alpha-betabase projecting downward. Alpha low last October 28th. Beta high on November 4th.
• This would project an initial downward delta 1.618 extension around 745. A low at 741 was hit on November 21st and the market then rallied.


• The rally ran out of steam at the 0.328 level of the original base pattern on January 6th. The high on that day was 943.9. (The 0.382 level was projected at 945.6)


• First support came at the intermediate 1.272 level (around 801.2). There was a low around 804 on January 20th and a subsequent weak rally up toward the 0.786 internal Fibonacci level.


• This rally failed, after 2 attempts to break through the 0.786 level, and on February 23rd the market flirted with the 1.618 delta level touched in November. There was a brief bounce at that level but by the end of the month the market was in full bear mode again.


• With an excess of negative sentiment (the question no longer seeming to be if Western Civilization was going to come to an end, but exactly on what day it was to occur) the market found a kind of wobbly support at the 2.058 intermediate Fibonacci level.


• The current rally began there. It broke swiftly through the next upward level at 1.618, found a little resistance at the 1.272 level at the end of last week, and presently is headed back to the original alpha level of the base which began this pattern.

But if the rally begins to lose energy as it approaches that level, we could see ourselves making our way to the original delta 2.618 target. That is to say a significant bottom around 582.