Pure Guesswork

Updates on the patterns examined in a Monday morning post.

At the time those charts were made, the market had found support at a level approximating 1.2945--a level found on several different patterns. However, that level failed to provide "support" once the US stock market opened. Yet the patterns seem to maintain some validity. The region around 1.2945 since that time has become more a center of gravity than support for the market. This sort of action around a point of inflection usually indicates the market will continue trend to the next level. In this case that would mean 1.2725 to 1.2750 area.

Updated charts:

UPDATE-- As I wrote this, EURUSD has rallied up to the region of the next level on several of these patterns--an area around 1.3010-1.3020.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

This pattern, explored in April 3 post, posited a target high at 0.7336. The actual high on April 13 was about 10 pips short of that.

Looking after the fact at this pattern we see an alpha-beta base formed on the last day of March between 0.6968 and 0.6854. Thefirst wave of a 3 wave impulsive move that followed moved quickly through the 1.618 and 2.618 targets, fading around the 3.33 minor Fibonacci level. This set up a probable move toward the 4.236 target after a pullback. The pullback ended at the 1.618 level, with the final wave ending--as noted--about 10 pips short of the theoretical target.

Looking at the entire impulsive move, we see that following the top we pulled back first 38.2% of the impulsive move (from beta low to delta 4.236 high). That corresponded to the original 2.618 target. Then today it retraced a full 61.8% of the original impulsive move, finding support (for now) at the original 1.618 target.

One last chart to show a possible A-B-C correction of the impulsive move, with the C wave ending 1.618 times below the original A wave.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 9:19 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

A few quick charts showing a convergence of Fibonacci targets around the low of this morning. (Targets converge around the 1.2945 area.)

From the eight hour charts, it can be seen that, if the level around 1.2945 does not hold, the next area of support would be around 1.2725.

On the 1 hour chart--showing the impulsive move down from an alpha-beta base--the next (4.236) target would be slightly above that.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 6:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 2:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Following up on this post from mid-March and charts from earlier in March.

Are we done now?

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 12:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Not as sure as I once was that this is a valid pattern, but not quite dead yet.

Would have been a lot more confident if that bottom around the 1.272 level had held.

Can the correction we have seen the last few weeks be visualized like this:

Or will it ultimately look more like this:

In any event, can anyone give me a fundamental reason the GBP is gaining against the euro?

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 5:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Some short term charts showing the impulsive move last Thursday associated with ECB's decision to lower rates by only 25 BPS rather than the 50 that was expected.

The alpha-beta base was set up at the end of the Asian / beginning of the European session. When the ECB decision was announced the market jumped uip to the 2.618 delta level (although it was already moving up, straddling the 1.618 level an hour or so before.) By early afternoon in the New York session, the rally peaked at the 4.236 (phi to the 3rd power) level.

The market then sold off in a three wave correction, the C wave ending at a the 1.272 Fibonacci level below the A.

What is to follow? Sorry, crystal ball is hazy at the moment. (So much for free analysis--you get what you pay for). Let's see how things open tonight.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 5:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

While the longer term pattern in AUDUSD is uncertain, there is a clear impulsive pattern working out on the hourly chart this week.

• After a low on Monday, March 30, the market formed an alpha-beta base with 3 waves up, then 3 wave down, the beta low coming at 0.6854 on Tuesday evening (NY time), i.e., just as the Wednesday Asian session was setting up.
• By Wednesday afternoon (NY time), April 1, there was some resistance forming right below the 1.272 intermediate Fibonacci level.
• The next resistance was around the 1.618 initial delta target. Then in London's Thursday morning session that level was broken
• The classic target for an impulsive move of this sort is 2.618 times the alpha-beta base. However, in this case, that level did not signal an end to the move. Rather it has become a center of gravity around which the market has been trading. Since crossing this level the market has traded roughly bordered by the 2 intermediate levels to each side of 2.618 (2.058 & 3.33).

This sort of action would give a high probability that the market will trade to the next exponent of phi, that is to say a level 4.236 times the intitial alpha-beta base. That would approximate 0.7335.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 1:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Classic 5 wave pattern up with a three wave correction which corrects a little more than 61.8%.

Length of C wave is 1.618 times the length of the A wave.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 4:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Possible target for GBPUSD 1.5176.

A three wave move, with an irregular intermediate wave.

In the interest of pretty chart drawing... the (c) of the irregular B wave played out a nice impulsive move that ended at the 4.236 delta Fibonacci extension.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 4:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)