AUDUSD--Monday, April 20, 2009
This pattern, explored in April 3 post, posited a target high at 0.7336. The actual high on April 13 was about 10 pips short of that.
Looking after the fact at this pattern we see an alpha-beta base formed on the last day of March between 0.6968 and 0.6854. Thefirst wave of a 3 wave impulsive move that followed moved quickly through the 1.618 and 2.618 targets, fading around the 3.33 minor Fibonacci level. This set up a probable move toward the 4.236 target after a pullback. The pullback ended at the 1.618 level, with the final wave ending--as noted--about 10 pips short of the theoretical target.
Looking at the entire impulsive move, we see that following the top we pulled back first 38.2% of the impulsive move (from beta low to delta 4.236 high). That corresponded to the original 2.618 target. Then today it retraced a full 61.8% of the original impulsive move, finding support (for now) at the original 1.618 target.
One last chart to show a possible A-B-C correction of the impulsive move, with the C wave ending 1.618 times below the original A wave.
