EURUSD--Friday, June 12, 2009
Looking at a six month old weekly chart of EURUSD included in this post from last December--
And then updating, using the internal fibs of the entire impulsive move (using the actual bottom at 1.2328 rather than projected delta 2.618 target of 1.2282)--
The high last week was roughly a 78.6% retracement of the entire impulsive move and also close to the high in late December, early January. (There was a higher spike high earlier in December).
Compare this to a similar pattern in GBPUSD noted in a post a few days ago. But in the case of cable, the impulsive move down was more extended (going to the 4.236 level, rather than 2.618) and the retracement only 61.8% of this impulsive move.
Looking at these long term charts I simply have to wonder whether dollar bears (especially against the euro and GBP) have become a little too complacent. I can't seem to find anyone who believes last week's highs in EURUSD or GBPUSD were tops.