EURUSD--Thursday, June 18, 2009
Some quickly updated charts on EURUSD.
First, a 4 hour chart showing a 2.618 extensive move down. The base for this move was formed after the high on June 3rd. Alpha at 1.4069 on June 4th, beta at 1.4268 on June 5th. After that came a large 3 wave pattern ending on Monday, June 15th. The 2.618 delta target would be 1.3751--which matched within 5 pips or so the actual low on the 15th.
Next, a 1 hour chart showing the action since the completion of the downward extension on Monday.
Is this all a little too neat? The high earlier this morning around 1.3990 would make a 3 wave pattern since the low where the Z wave was basically equal to the X wave (or A & C, for those doing Elliott).
Looking back at the 4 hour chart, a level around 1.3948 would be a 38.2% retracement of the extended move down. Since the rally yesterday afternoon, we seem to have been oscillating around that level. A 50% retracement would take the market just north of 1.40, a 61.8% retracement back to the original alpha level just south of 1.4070.