Pure Guesswork

A former bank trader was the first person I ever ran into that used the ratio 1.272 as a Fibonacci level on charts. When I asked him what the signficance of this level was--i.e., how it fitted in with the other Fibonacci ratios, he said, "I dunno. I just know that they like that level in bank trading rooms. So I like it too."

And so this happens:

A 5 minute chart of EurUsd as of 12:49 PM EST today.

We arrive at 1.272 (based on the first wave down). All together now, take profits and fade

(And to solve the mystery. . . just square it.)

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 12:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

On a 2 hour chart, an irregular A-B-C correction beginning on October 28 and ending with yesterday's high. Taking the length of the A wave was 176 pips. Multiplying that length by 1.618 produces a value of 284.768. Round that up to 285 and add that to the November 3 low at 1.4625 produces a C wave projection of 1.4910, 2 pips north of yesterday's high.

The pattern shown on a 2 hour chart:

A 30 minute chart shows the impulsive character of the C wave, The alpha-beta base is formed on November 3, with a high at 1.4696 and a subsequent low at 1.4630. The rally is tentative at first, fading below the 1.618 initial target, but keeping above the alpha level. Once it moves through the 1.618 level it gravitates to the 2.058 minor Fibonacci level, then retests the 1.618 level. The truly impulsive part of the rally begins after that level is tested and holds. The market rallied through the 2.618 target area, paused for a few hours just below another minor Fibonacci level (3.330), then moved quickly and somewhat erratically up to the 4.236 target level. Again, the top came within a pip or two of the theoretical target.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 7:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)