AUDUSD--Wednesday, January 6, 2010
An alpha-beta-delta impulsive up move in October 2009, ending within one pip of the 2.618 target.
Here's how it played out:
- An alpha high at 0.8857 on October 1, then a beta low the following day at 0.8566, creating an alpha-beta base of 291 pips.
- 2.618 times that 291 pips would call for an impulsive rally of aprroximately 761 pips.
- On October 21 AUDUSD tops out at 0.9326, 760 pips above the beta low.
After that October 21 high we entered a long corrective period which possibly ended right before Christmas with a low on December 23 of 0.8732.
Two observations about that long corrective period:--
- First, it unfolded in a 3 wave pattern, with a slightly irregular Y (or B) wave. The last down wave (Z) ended on December 23. It was 10 pips shy of 1.618 times the first down wave (X).
- And second, the entire X-Y-Z corrective move retraced 78.6% of the impulsive move of October (within 3 pips).
Since the December 23 low we have seen a significant rally, retracing aprroximately 61.8% of the final Z down wave. But there will be no clear pattern until we see how any retracement of that rally unfolds.