Pure Guesswork

A relief rally today. How long will it take market participants to come to the conclusion that there might not be much to be relieved about in the EC deal struck yesterday?

Following the extended Fibonacci pattern shown in this post from a week ago on a daily chart.

After trading for about 6 weeks in a sideways range which centered around the 2.618 extended target (1.3631), we now seem to be en route to the 4.236 target in the general vicinity of 1.3045.

Looking at a 2 hour chart, we can see that the bounce last night came right as 61.8% of the distance between the two targets was met. So far today the rally seems to be finding resistance at another Fibonacci level, 38.2%.

Above this level we have an area that provided support three different times during that long sideways move from early February until the recent break. This level, around 1.3430 to 1.3450, should now form solid resistance.