Pure Guesswork

Playing around with some Fibonacci patterns on a weekly 10 Year Yield chart.

First, a pattern noticed during the impulsive move from March to June of 2009:

An alpha-beta base formed from the January low to the March low was followed by an impulsvie move up to approximately 4.00%. The 2.618 Fibonacci target of this pattern was 4.008%, the actual high at 4.014%--a 0.6 basis points difference between target and actual high.

The pattern since that time seems to be a 3 wave non-impulsive correction of the move in 2009 to 4.00%. If that is the case we are currently in the C wave down.

Some potential targets for this C wave:

Another:

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:16 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The pattern suggested in a post last Friday has worked itself out. The theoretical target was 1.2662, The high yesterday was 1.2661. Since then EURUSD has sold off more than 100 pips.

In this chart we see an alpha-beta base formed the last 2 days of June. This would call for Fibonacci targets 1.618, 2.618 and 4.236 times this base. The 2.618 target (1.2482) was hit on July 1, then a few hours later surpassed. After that it twice proved to be support, making it more likely that the pattern would continue to the 4.236 target at 1.2662.

Interestingly, if one projects the distance of the original alpha-beta base down from the 4.236 target level--

--there is our support level this morning.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 8:29 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Yesterday morning I posted this chart--

--in which I posited support coming in right below 1.06.

We reached that target yesterday afternoon.

A look at a 30 minute chart shows how that Fibonacci level has so far stopped the bleeding in USDCHF.

If this level does not hold, and the current impulsive pattern down continues, the next target would be below parity.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 9:22 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A quick look at a 30 minute chart on EURUSD, showing an impulsive "price pulse" off a base formation formed Wednesday and early Thursday.

Late yesterday we met the 2.618 target around 1.2480. The next target in this pattern is circa 1.2660.

That also correlates with a target in a (potential) higher order pattern shown in this 8 hour chart:

If this pattern proves valid, and the current EURUSD recovery continues, we would look for the following targets:

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 8:53 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A quick update on a pattern in USDCHF explored in a post 10 days ago:

We have had support at the 1.618 and 2.618 Fibonacci levels. The next expected support should be right around the 1.06 level, which would be the 4.236 (phi or 1.618 to the 3rd power) level.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 6:33 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)