Pure Guesswork

A few charts updating the impulsive pattern examined earlier this week. We are approaching a target area. Looks for signs of a fade.

Internals seen on an hourly chart.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 7:30 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Is that it?

(C wave fades at 1.618 times A).

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 6:52 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Updating today's earlier post, the initial support indicated around 1.3625 has held. So far. If this were to break, we might expect the next support around 1.3590.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 6:18 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A few charts showing a possible target area for the current rally in EURUSD.

First a daily chart.

In this theoretical pattern, the move down last November can be seen as a 3 wave corrective pattern. An a-b-c which results in a larger scale A wave.

Since that time market action might be seen as an irregular counter move--a B to its A-- with the low a few weeks ago as a b of B. And that would put this current rally as the ongoing c wave of that B move.

There is an area around 1.3780 which would be a 61.8 retracement of the original A wave down. It also defined the end of the b wave of that move.

Now looking at a 4 hour chart we can look more closely at the internals of that theoretical c of B wave.

There seems to be an impulsive move happening to complete this c of B wave. The target--2.618 times the base--would be around 1.3765. In other words, in the same neighborhood as the 1.3780 target seen on the daily chart.

This impulsive move--and the way current moves seem to conform to it--can be seen more clearly on an hourly chart.

The 1.618 impulsive level (1.3624)--initial resistance should now provide support. The 2.618 level (1.3765) is the current target.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 11:36 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Following a pattern noted in a post last Friday, a level which initially had the potential for providing support has now become a level of resistance.

The 2.618 impulsive target around 1.2960 was clearly broken last Friday. Since then, although there have been probes above that level, all have proven to be head fakes. This is seen quite clearly on an hourly chart:

Quite often when a target level like this fails to define an end to a move it will, for a time, become a center of gravity for a sideways pause before the trend resumes. The trend here in EURUSD being clearly down.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 9:58 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Some support for EURUSD seems to be developing right above the 1.2960 level. This can be seen as a Fibonacci 2.618 level on a downward impulsive move (that intersects the completed upward corrective move detailed in the last post.) Notice how there was some initial support, after the first impulsive move down around 1.3140, the Fibonacci 1.618 level. the 2.618 level should provide more energetic support. And certainly, at this point, mid-morning Friday, it seems unlikely the market will continue to probe this downside level.

For theory's sake, to project this pattern down would find the next support around 1.2665, the 4.236 Fibonacci level.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:41 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Since the EURUSD bottomed below 1.30 at the end of November, the market has corrected upward, but without any sense of a genuine bull move. For the moment it is possible to characterize the action as a 3 wave Elliott corrective move (A-B-C), with the B wave being irregular.

The A wave tops out on December 3rd at 1.3437. Then the irregular B wave begins, with an initial low at 1.3164 on December 9th, a counter move that tops out above the initial A top near 1.35 on Dec 14th, then a final low at 1.3055 on Dec 23rd.

Here is a look at some of the internal dynamics of that irregular B (in a chart made on Monday morning when the C wave was still ongoing):

The length of the c of B wave was almost almost exactly 1.618 times the length of the a of B wave. (In fact it was about exact as it could be--442 pips,versus the 441.7 pips called for in theory.)

In a chart also made Monday morning, a C wave was projected to end around the same level as the top of the initial A wave. Using the same dynamics as the B wave (although this time it was not irreguar)----c of C being 1.618 times the length of a of C)--projected an end to the 3 wave upward correction around 1.3437.
.

The top yesterday proved to be 6 pips below that theoretical target.

Shown on a 4 hour chart from this morning:

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 9:39 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)