Pure Guesswork

Late Friday the EURUSD approached a confluence of Fibonacci targets--both long term and short term--at the close.

Looking at a 4 hour chart from late March:

A 2.618 Fibonacci extension of an alpha-beta base was met at 1.4248 on March 22. At the time, the possibility that the extension would continue to the next major target (4.236) was noted. The theoretical level for that target was 1.4484.

We achieved that on Friday.

Note that the initial 2.618 level provided some resistance and a subsequent sell off last Monday, but by Wednesday we were through it and it became support.

Then, looking at a shorter time frame chart from Friday (15 minutes), we see a lower order impulsive move from an alpha-beta base with an initial 2.618 extended target at 1.4403.

While the initial impulsive move ended there in the Asian morning session, it drifted higher through the European morning.

And then near the close of the NY session it spiked higher towards the 4.236 target--roughly the same as the longer term 4.236 target.

Both these patterns seem completed. Today has seen a lack of impetus for any further moves, despite the fact that sentiment in the market seems uniformly convinced that we are going higher.