" /> Pure Guesswork: May 2011 Archives

« April 2011 | Main | June 2011 »

May 31, 2011

EURUSD--Tuesday, May 31, 2011 Again

110531-0600-eur4hr-a.gif

EURUSD--Tuesday, May 31, 2011

110531-0600-eur4hr.gif

May 25, 2011

EURUSD--Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Is this too simple?
A - B - C.
B retraces 61.8% of A, then the C wave fades at the 161.8% extension of the A.
110525-0730-eur1hr.gif

We could get only slightly more complicated with this chart.
Projecting the length of the A wave from the bottom of B, the fade is around the 127.2% mark.
And it leaves us open for a surprise move to 1.4160 and a new fade there.
110525-0730-eur1hr-a.gif

May 19, 2011

30 Year Treasury Yield -- Thursday, May 19, 2011

A daily chart of the 30 Year Yield since last October, showing:


  1. an alpha-beta base setting up an impulsive move higher

  2. target for impulsive move at 4.236 times the height of the base met in February

  3. a 3 wave 61.8% retracement of the entire impulsive move


Click chart to see a larger version..

110518-1500-30yrDaily-b.gif

May 9, 2011

EURUSD--Monday, February 9, 2011

110509-1012-eur1hr.gif
Exhausted yet, euro sellers?

An impulsive pattern where there was some support at the 4.236 extension.late Thursday, before Friday's continuation of the down move. The next exponent of phi would be 6.854 (1.618 to the 4th power). Right about where we are now.

May 4, 2011

EURUSD--Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Quick update on the EURUSD charts posted on Monday. Target was 1.4950 as the 4.236 Fibonacci extension. 1.4939 printed today. Close enough.

110504-110-eur8hr.gif

May 3, 2011

GBPUSD--May 3, 2011

Similar pattern to the EURUSD shown yesterday, with the difference that in this case, the pattern seems completed.

Shown on a daily chart:
110503-0744-gbpday.gif

And on an 8 hour chart, showing more clearly how the 2.618 and 4.236 extensions of the base provided zones of resistance and subsequent support:
110503-0744-gbp8hr.gif

May 2, 2011

EURUSD--Monday, May2, 2010

A pattern examined previously. Fibonacci extensions at 1.618 and 2.618 from a base formed in early March first provided resistance and then support in ongoing EURUSD rally. The next exponential extension would be at the 4.236 level -- 1.4950.
110502-1000-eurday.gif

Latest action shown on an 8 hour chart:
110502-1000-eur8hr.gif