Pure Guesswork

A short term pattern seen on the 30 min ESU chart.

Resistance came in first at the 1.618 target early Monday morning. Sailed right through the 2.618 target during the afternoon rally yesterday, then topped out at a minor Fibonacci level between the 2.618 and 4.236 major targets.

We sold off from this level, at first gently, oscillating around the 2.618 level. Then came a spike down on the horrendous confidence numbers. Support came at the minor Fibonacci level between the 1.618 and 2.618 levels. (Came in exactly, as it happened.) Which means this pattern could still be operative and we could ultimately climb towards the 4.236 target arround 1222.50.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:48 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The chart I posted yesterday was close but not the real pattern being played out. After the fact, try this one.

Classic impulsive move up ending at 2.618 times the base. Moreover, it looks as though a 3 wave down move has ended this morning. (First wave down at 1.272 of the impulsive pattern base, third wave at 0.618 of the base.)

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:48 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 11:39 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 8:54 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Fade?

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 8:33 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Hourly chart of the Dec Gold contract. Impulsive move up since correction from high above 1800. Fade at the 4.236 Fibonacci target.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 12:28 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

After the fact, the pattern is found.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 7:10 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Another pretty picture, this time of the 10 year bond future. Enjoy.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 1:34 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A few charts. We came tolerably close to an impulsive Fibonacci downside target last week and bounced.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 5:12 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Monthly spot gold.

Going back to a pattern that held true from a base formed in 2006 and a Fibonacci target hit in the March of 2008. The top that month was 30 cents shy of the theoretical 2.618 extension. Then a big sell off ending in October of 2008. Then the parabolic will it ever end move we have all come to enjoy.

The 6.854 Fibonacci extension (and what could be more expressive of a parabola than phi raised to the fourth power) would target a price around 1825, very close to the highs made this week.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:47 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

This is the daily chart of the Dec 11 Gold contract. While most commentators scramble to revise their upside targets higher and higher, it has been pretty parabolic recently. Sometimes these markets actually do go down, at least for a little bit. Here is a pattern which would posit a peak right above 1820:

Looking at an hourly chart, notice how we have been forming a triangle oscillating around the halfway point between the 4.236 and 2.618 Fibonacci targets:

One more blow off above 1800? Then bull trap?

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 6:31 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

An hourly chart showing an impulsive downside pattern with a target around 1228.60. Notice how earlier Fibonacci targets (2.618 & 4.236) provided some support on the way down. 1228.60 is the 6.854 extension of the base.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 9:23 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A couple of charts made over the weekend.

First a long term chart showing that the highs in February completed a 6.854 extended impulsive move from a base made back in the summer of 2010.

On a daily chart, the recent impulsive move can be seen as a possible C wave up. The target was around 4.50. This chart is from Friday. In last night's rally we went a little higher than that target but without any conviction. Now trading well below it. But time will tell whether this pattern is valid or not.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:36 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A few charts showing a confluence of targets below 0.7800, specifically circa 0.7775. Say 0.7800 to 0.7740, just to be careful.

First a pattern on the weekly chart showing a 4.236 Fibonacci target on a price pulse unfolding from a base formed in January.

Notice how we had some initial support around the 1.618 and 2.618 level. Furthermore, once breached, the 2.618 level provided resistance.

On a 4 hour chart, the price action between the 2.618 and 4.236 levels (with internal Fibonacci levels):

There is a lesser price pulse which can be seen on the 4 hour chart. The base was formed mid July. The 2.618 target of this pattern is the same as the 4.236 target of the larger pattern seen on the weekly chart.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 8:16 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)