Pure Guesswork

15 minute chart. C wave tops outs perfectly at 1.618 level above A.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 9:50 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

An impulsive pattern to the downside that met a Fibonacci 2.618 target at Wednesday's close.

The cash SPX on an hourly chart:

The Dec ES future. Here the levels from the initial cash market basing pattern are used (adjusted for the Dec basis):

And just in case these charts seem to optimistic, there is always the chance the pattern could continue to the next exponential Fibonacci target (4.236). That would take us below 1100.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 9:05 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Away for a few days but trying to catch up. Our story so far. . .

First an impulsive move down completed near European open. A 30 minute chart:

Are we now in a 3 wave upside correction?

Wave A is impulsive, B irregular. A few 5 minute charts:

A few patterns project a possible C wave target around 1.3615 15 minute charts:

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:20 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

An impulsive pattern? Maybe.

Showing these levels in more detail on an hourly chart.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 4:14 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Very short term, there appears to be an exhaustion of an impulsive move down around the 1.3580 level. Point here is that breaking the 36 handle, market might think downside will accelerate. This pattern indicates there might be a fake out for late shorts entering the party. We could see some backing and filling before more downside.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 8:54 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Update of a pattern noted last Friday.

We are still within the range noted on Friday, trading between the bottom of the previous impulsive move up and the level 1.618 times below that completed impulsive pattern.

So far this week we have traded in a tightening spiral around the minor 1.272 Fibonacci level.

An hourly chart showing this:

This is even clearer when we look at price distribution since last Tuesday's Asian open through this morning.

Notice how what a market profiler would term the "value area" over this period is right at that 1.272 Fibonacci level, roughly 1.3760 to 1.3770. Basically where we are right now.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 7:17 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Short term impulsive pattern seen on a 15 minute chart. Base formed on Thursday, then a powerful impulsive move that broke through the 2.618 Fibonacci target on Friday's open. Friday afternoon that level became support. And then this morning we saw a spike high a few pennies south of the 4.236 Fibonacci target. If there is still energy left in this pattern, the next target would be 9.73. If we break the 8.16 (2.618 Fibonacci extension) level on a sell off, then this particular (short term) impulsive move is over.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 1:52 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

On Monday I posted a chart showing an impulsive move which happened late last week in EURUSD.

Since then we fell to a level 1.618 below the level of that impulsive move, found some support there and then retraced upwards. A few minutes ago we bounced up against the original floor of that impulsive move and failed.

And with that, game over.

Voila:

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 9:07 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A quick update of a pattern noted yesterday.

An impulsive move down from a narrow base, with a target met 6.854 times the size of that base. Then 3 distinct waves up which (at this point) seem corrective.

So far, the bottom of the original base has capped the move up.

This level is also roughly 1.618 times the first (A) wave up.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 6:20 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Hourly chart shows a Fibonacci impulsive target met near the low of the day. Bounced from there.

If it doesn't hold, the next downside target for a continuation of this pattern would be around 42.30.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 3:14 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 9:53 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)