Pure Guesswork

February Gold, a short term downside pattern (base formed a few days ago) seems to have completed itself around 1566.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 9:57 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

An update of the chart posted yesterday. Same pattern still seems to be in play, with sideways price action gravitating towards the 2.618 Fibonacci level. More likely to see a bounce up from here before the pattern could continue down to the next target.

Price distribution hourly bars from Asian open, December 14 until Dec 16, 6:00 AM EST.

1.3070 x
1.3060 x x x
1.3050 x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3040 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3030 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x < - - 2.618 = 1.3036
1.3020 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3010 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3000 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2990 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2980 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2970 x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2960 x x x x x x x
1.2950 x x x
1.2940 x x

More likely to see a bounce up from here before the pattern could continue down to the next target.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 7:06 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A short term impulsive pattern to the downside which began with a base formed last Friday. Looking for 1.2790.

Price distribution since Monday Asian open. Notice the two distributions around the 1.618 and 2.618 levels:

1.3380 x x
1.3370 x x x x
1.3360 x x x x x x x x <-- midpoint (50%) of base
1.3350 x x x x x x x x
1.3340 x x x x x x x
1.3330 x x x x x
1.3320 x x x
1.3310 x x x
1.3300 x x x
1.3290 x x x
1.3280 x x x x x
1.3270 x x x x x
1.3260 x x x x x x
1.3250 x x x x x x x
1.3240 x x x x
1.3230 x x x x
1.3220 x x x x x x
1.3210 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3200 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3190 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x <-- 1.618
1.3180 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3170 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3160 x x x x x x x
1.3150 x
1.3140 x
1.3130 x
1.3120 x
1.3110 x
1.3100 x x x x x
1.3090 x x x x x
1.3080 x x x x x
1.3070 x x x x x
1.3060 x x x x x x
1.3050 x x x x x x x x x
1.3040 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3030 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x <-- 2.618
1.3020 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3010 x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3000 x x x x x x x x
1.2990 x x x x x x x x
1.2980 x x x x x x x
1.2970 x x x x x x
1.2960 x x x x x
1.2950 x x
1.2940 x x

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 5:16 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A weekly chart of the nearest gold future showing an impulsive move beginning from a base formed during the summer of 2010. Early waves were roughly contained within the 2.618 and 1.618 targets. The next higher target (4.236 times the base) did not provide resistance. As sometimes happens, the opposite occurred. Once through this level, the market moved almost vertically, up 300 dollars in a little over 3 weeks. The next level was 6.854 times the base, around 1900. Here price action became erratic as the move finally exhausted itself. (A similar pattern played out in EURUSD in late 2007-early 2008.)

In the move off this high, the 4.236 level, ignored by the market on the way up, has become support on the way down. We have not closed on a weekly basis below that level (around 1618).

If we look at the internal Fibonacci levels of the entire impulsive move, we can see that the spike low in late September failed at the 50% level. We are approaching once more the 1618 level, approximately 38.2% of the entire impulsive move. A weekly close below this level could see us working down towards the earlier spike low and possibly lower. A 61.8% retracement would take us to around 1440.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 5:37 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Playing with a Fibonacci pattern noted by @NicTrades:

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 6:38 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Price action still seems to be conforming to the impulsive pattern noted last week.
Friday's close held the 2.618 Fibonacci extension around 1242. Minor resistance is still around 1258. We probed higher than that level on Friday morning before the cash market opened, but failed to achieve an hourly close above it. This morning we are again bumping up against this level. Once price gets securely above it, the next major target for this pattern would be around 1279.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 6:53 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A quick update of a pattern noted yesterday

After trading around the 2.618 Fibonacci target level, we have traded up to the next minor level (around 1258). In the few hours that have passed since the European open this level seems to have (at least temporarily) capped the advance.

The next major level up (Fibonacci 4.236) would be around 1279.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 5:50 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Yesterday, after the initial move up on joint CB action, I tweeted that I was looking for 1242 in the Dec ES.

Here are the charts I was looking at (from 9:00 AM yesterday):

You can see how the two patterns are related, the base of the second pattern being roughly the first and second impulsive targets of the first. Both projected a higher target around 1242.30 - 1242.40.

And from this morning, here is how we have progressed into those patterns:

As you can see, that target level has become not resistance but a central level around which the market has traded sideways since yesterday's close.

And what if these patterns, after a pause, were to continue to work to the upside?

Here the upside targets diverge. One target would be right around 1300, the other lower, around 1279.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 7:37 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A few short term EURUSD charts.

First, a 15 minute chart showing the impulsive move yesterday, and the long drawn out sideways (but slightly irregular) action since then. Notice how this action has stayed mainly within the bounds of the 2.618 and 1.618 impulsive targets (including this morning's high).

And then a 5 minute chart.

While the move up to the high this morning right above 1.35 looks like it might be impulsive, a closer examination shows a more corrective structure. First an A wave up, then a B wave which retraces 50% of A, then a C wave which is exactly 1.618 times the length of A. Taking into account that the high was also the initial impulsive target of yesterday's move, it seems we are still churning sideways, and any impulsive action, either up or down, will come from a base pattern yet to form.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 6:51 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)