Pure Guesswork

A few charts showing a confluence of targets below 0.7800, specifically circa 0.7775. Say 0.7800 to 0.7740, just to be careful.

First a pattern on the weekly chart showing a 4.236 Fibonacci target on a price pulse unfolding from a base formed in January.

Notice how we had some initial support around the 1.618 and 2.618 level. Furthermore, once breached, the 2.618 level provided resistance.

On a 4 hour chart, the price action between the 2.618 and 4.236 levels (with internal Fibonacci levels):

There is a lesser price pulse which can be seen on the 4 hour chart. The base was formed mid July. The 2.618 target of this pattern is the same as the 4.236 target of the larger pattern seen on the weekly chart.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 8:16 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Yesterday morning I posted this chart--

--in which I posited support coming in right below 1.06.

We reached that target yesterday afternoon.

A look at a 30 minute chart shows how that Fibonacci level has so far stopped the bleeding in USDCHF.

If this level does not hold, and the current impulsive pattern down continues, the next target would be below parity.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 9:22 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A quick update on a pattern in USDCHF explored in a post 10 days ago:

We have had support at the 1.618 and 2.618 Fibonacci levels. The next expected support should be right around the 1.06 level, which would be the 4.236 (phi or 1.618 to the 3rd power) level.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 6:33 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A quick look at an 8 hour chart shows we have bounced off an impulsive "price pulse" target on the downside. This follows the completion of a higher order upside move shown in a post last Thursday.

Although we are bouncing here, this pattern could very well continue to develop. If so the next target on the downside would be right below 1.06.

Late Afternoon Update

An hourly chart to show how USDCHF has climbed internal Fibonacci levels since bouncing off the 2.618 target of the pattern shown above. It has come back about 50% of the distance between the 1.618 and 2.618 targets. The next internal level up, 61.8%, might be a decent level to attempt to get back in on the short side. Roughly around 1.1160.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 8:37 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A large impulsive move upward was completed on June 1, a 4.236 Fibonacci extension of a base formed in December 2009 and January 2010. Remarkably, the theoretical target was only 1 pip from the actual high of the move.

This week we have rapidly fallen back to the area of the 2.618 Fibonacci level.

As you can see on a daily chart, on the way up the market powered through this 2.618 level, fell back below it, then oscillated around it for a few days. For this reason it is quite likely we shall see some support in this region.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 11:13 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)