GBP - Wednesday, March 10, 2010
March 10, 2010
October 7, 2009
EURGBP--October 7, 2009
An update of the impulsive Fibonacci pattern which I have been following since mid-September when the pair was trading around 0.8950. The initial upside target was circa 09075 to 0.9095, which was hit on September 22nd. There was a small sell-off, but then the pair shot through the (2.618) target level. Since that time the initial resistance level around the 2.618 extension has become support. Currently a minor Fibonacci level (3.33) is providing resistance (around 0.9260).
A daily chart:
And seen in more detail on two 8 hour charts:
As can be seen, if this pattern continues to be operative, the next big target for the EURGBP would be somewhere around 0.9500.
September 29, 2009
EURGBP--Tuesday Afternoon--September 29, 2009
Have we had our correction in EURGBP (and EURUSD)? Worth considering, while watching for consolidation. Here is a 30 minute EURGBP chart showing the fall from the high on Sunday night to the low this morning. A nice A-B-C Elliott correction, where A = C exactly. Sometimes its possible to get a little too wrapped up in such perfection (although the slightly irregular but basically sideways B might disturb some).
EURGBP--Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Just a quick update on a pattern first demonstrated in this post on September 17th, then followed up on the 18th, then the 21st, and yesterday.
First the whole pattern with impulsive move from the base--a daily chart:
Then in more detail on a 4 hour chart:
For now, support might come in at the former resistance level, approximately 0.9075 to 0.9115. Another possiblity is that rather than providing support, this area could become a focus of range trading before another move up towards the 4.236 Fibonacci target.
September 28, 2009
EURGBP--Monday, September 28, 2009
Last Monday I posted some charts showing a pattern with a 2.618 extended target for EURGBP around the 0.9075-0.9090 region. There was potential for some topping action in this pattern, but the potential didn't really pan out. All we got was a few days backing and filling, with a low last Wednesday about 100 pips below the target level. Then on Thursday we clearly broke through the Fibonacci target area.
The fact that in this rally, ongoing since early August, we have had slight pullbacks roughly--or a little below-- the 1.618 and 2.618 extended levels gives some evidence that the Fibonacci pattern is valid. The next target in this pattern would be the 4.236 (phi cubed) level. And that would be in the area of 0.9500, or a little below.
September 21, 2009
EURGBP--Monday, September 21, 2009
We may have seen an interim top in EURGBP this morning
Going back to the pattern shown last Friday, there has been in process an impulsive move off a beta low in early August (around 0.8450). The 2.618 Fibonacci target would be projected around 0.9090.
And shown in more detail on an 8 hour chart.
Notice how the first wave up from the base topped out in late August exactly 10 pips below the projected 1.618 target (0.8838 rather than the projected 0.8848).
If we adjust the pattern to take this in, the 2.618 target now become 0.9076 rather than 0.9093, which is roughly this morning's high.
Adjustment shown on daily chart:
And again on the 8 hour chart:
September 18, 2009
EURGBP--Friday, September 18, 2009
Accelerating towards the 2.618 target.
September 17, 2009
EURGBP--Thursday, September 17, 2009
An impulsive move off an alpha-beta base. The first wave up failed 10 pips below a theoretical 1.618 target on August 27th. After a sideways correction which stayed above the top of the alpha-beta base, the current wave up should have a target somewhere between 0.9075 and 0.9100. (Minor resistance somewhere around 0.8940-0.8960.)
A daily chart:
And more detail in an 8 hour chart:
April 5, 2009
EURGBP--Sunday Afternoon, April 5, 2009
Not as sure as I once was that this is a valid pattern, but not quite dead yet.
Would have been a lot more confident if that bottom around the 1.272 level had held.
Can the correction we have seen the last few weeks be visualized like this:
Or will it ultimately look more like this:
In any event, can anyone give me a fundamental reason the GBP is gaining against the euro?
February 2, 2009
EURGBP--February 2, 2009
An impulsive move completed at the end of December, from an alpha-beta base in September/October.
Once it got above the delta 2.618 target (0.8994) on December 16th, the chart went parabolic as traders in thinning market conditions aimed for parity. But the delta 4.236 target (09800) level saw the rally run out of steam. In early January it fell even more swiftly than it had risen; by January 7th it had fallen back to the 2.618 level. It oscillated around that level for more than a week, then rallied again. A rally that failed at approximately 0.618 times the distance between the 4.236 and 2.618 delta levels (Which is to say that it failed at approximately the distance of the original alpha-beta base from the 2.618 delta level.) Since then it has fallen to a slightly lower low than the original decline in early January, and then bounced.
This sets up a possible head and shoulders pattern. At the moment the market is trading right around the 2.618 level of attraction.
September 7, 2008
EURGBP--Sunday, September 7, 2008
It now looks as if EURGBP has built another base between June and August for this latest move up. The high on Thursday (from which is rapidly retreated) was at the 1.618 delta level of this new alpha-beta base. The 2.618 target would be around 0.8425.
It is useful to note that while the recent highs at which the euro has traded against sterling have been noted as "all time highs," that only goes back to the official creation of the euro as a hard currency in 1999; if you go back to the early 90's and construct a chart using a "synthetic" euro based on the DM and the ERM, this pair traded above 0.9000.
Furthermore ,on a monthly chart, we can find a higher level pattern which would also show a likely target around 0.8425.
April 30, 2008
EurGbp--Wednesday Morning, April 30, 2008
April 25, 2008
EurGbp Friday Morning, April 25, 2008
Monthly chart showing fibonacci extensions going back through 2000.
Two waves up with a long (over 4 years) wedge shaped pause centered roughly at the 1.618 level.
Alpha-beta base built in 2000-2001.
FIrst impulsive wave up reaches 2.618 target in May of 2003.
Current impulsive wave hit 4.236 target this month.
April 10, 2008
EURGBP-Thursday Morning, April 10, 2008
Another conjuntion of fibonacci inflection points around 0.8020-0.825 on a very long term basis.
As seen from a chart from last December, th 0.7257 top in 2003 was itself a culmination of a delta 2.618 wave from an alpha-beta base made in 2000-2001.
April 2, 2008
Top in Eurgbp
How long it will hold is still in question, but two patterns, one on a weekly chart going back to March of 2007, and one shorter term going back to last November, coincided with a fibonacci area of attraction aroung 0.7970-0.7980.
First the longer term pattern which was dealt with previously in three posts in January here, here and here. Eurgbp had topped out around 0.7250 in May of 2003. From then through January of 2006 it traded in a wedge pattern, with a descending trendline causing each rally attempt to fail beneath the previous high.
Then in late September the market broke above the descending trendline.
With the rally and retracement seen right before this breakout as alpha and beta, the following pattern unfolded.
Once the impulsive rally off of the beta low broke through the downtrend line, the 1.618 delta level was the first area of resistance, with the former downtrend line now forming support. The next impulsive move seemed to bring the market to a level that gravitated around the 2.618 level (rather than that level providing resistance). The same situation occurred after the next impulsive rally, with the 4.236 delta level providing a center of gravity for a month or so of range trading. Then another impulsive rally and a top around the 6.854 level.
The second pattern begins with an alpha at the top above 07600 in mid-January of this year. A beta near the end of the month projected a 2.618 delta target that converged exactly with the 6.854 delta of the longer term pattern.
January 7, 2008
Eurgbp Update
Still refusing to break clearly above the 4.236 delta level.
January 3, 2008
EurGbp Update
January 2, 2008
EurGbp Nearing 4.236 Target on Weekly Chart
Detail on 8 hour chart:
