GBPUSD--Thursday, June 23, 2011
June 23, 2011
May 3, 2011
GBPUSD--May 3, 2011
Similar pattern to the EURUSD shown yesterday, with the difference that in this case, the pattern seems completed.
Shown on a daily chart:
And on an 8 hour chart, showing more clearly how the 2.618 and 4.236 extensions of the base provided zones of resistance and subsequent support:
January 26, 2011
GBPUSD--Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Is that it?
(C wave fades at 1.618 times A).
June 11, 2010
GBPUSD--Friday, June 11, 2010
As can be seen on this hourly chart, a minor impulsive move to the upside completed itself in the first few hours of European trading this morning.
The 2.618 target was met mid-day New York time on Wednesday. This morning there was a brief spike above the 4.236 target right after the London open, but there was no close, even on a 30 minute chart, above the target level.
March 10, 2010
GBP - Wednesday, March 10, 2010
October 14, 2009
GBPUSD--Wednesday, October 14, 2009
The market is still conforming to the downward impulsive pattern shown in charts yesterday.
Daily:
Once the 1.618 level around 1.5720 became support yesterday morning, it became very likely that the next Fibonacci level up, 1.272, would be visited again. This level is around 1.5940, and has proven to be an equilibrium level around which the market has oscillated since late September.
Seen on a 4 hour chart:
Having overshot that level overnight, it has now come down below it again.
A 1 hour chart:
We could play tag with this level for a bit.
.
October 13, 2009
GBPUSD--Tuesday, October 13, 2009
A Fibonacci pattern seems to be taking shape in the GBPUSD bear move. Taking the low near the beginning of September and the high on September 11 as the alpha-beta base for a downward impulsive move, the initial 1.618 extended target would be approximately 1.5725. Below that would be the 2.618 extended target around 1.5095.
Daily chart:
Notice how, once the initial impulsive thrust was made below the alpha level towards the 1.618 initial target, the market oscillated for days around the 1.272 Fibonacci level, failing twice to rally above the alpha level and then today bounced off the 1.618 level.
Seen in more detail on a 4 hour chart:
September 22, 2009
GBPUSD--Tuesday, September 22, 2009
The amount of negative sentiment recently about GBPUSD has not really been matched by price action.
Here is a chart I posted on this blog almost 3 months ago (from June 25):
It shows an alpha-beta base formed from January through the March low, and then projects a continuation of an impulsive move towards a 2.618 Fibonacci target around 1.7136. At the time the chart was made, the market was oscillating around the minor 2.058 Fibonacci level.
Well, here we are in late September and guess what the GBPUSD market is still doing...
Still oscillating around that 2.058 Fibonacci level (1.6390). It approached the 2.618 target in early August, but then sold off. Yet it has never really broken out of the sideways range it has been in since June. It could still break towards the 2.618 Fibonacci target above 1.71.
I think, looking at this chart, one could say that it would take a move below 1.58 to really say the up move which began in March in GBPUSD is over.
July 1, 2009
GBPUSD, Wednesday, July 1, 2009
An update of the pattern explored in last Thursday's post.
Looking at a 4 hour chart, we see how the minor Fibonacci level (2.058) formed a sort of center of gravity for trading for most of June. Then after yesterday's rally, a sell off came to an end this morning right at that level.
If that level holds as support (rather than a mid-point of a trading range), then we could be looking at a rally towards the 2.618 extended target above 1.71.
June 25, 2009
GBPUSD Update--Late Thursday, June 25, 2009
Updating the post from this morning, a 4 hour chart showing how, after the sharp sell-off this morning, the market recovered and came to rest right at the 2.058 Fibonacci extension. This has been for days an equilibrium level around which the market oscillates.
GBPUSD--Thursday, June 25, 2009
On a daily chart we can see some internal price action which would be consistent with an extended Fibonacci pattern working off a base created by the February 9 high at 1.4983 and the subsequent low on March 11 at 1.3652.
The first attempt to break out of the base occurred in mid April. When it failed, the market quickly dropped to approximately the 0.618 level of the alpha-beta base.
This can be seen on a 4 hour chart from April:
When the break-out finally did occur in early May, the alpha level became support. Their was some initial resistance at the minor 1.272 level, but then the impulsive move took off and it quickly rallied to the 1.618 level. There was a quick shart sell-off at that level, but the market soon recovered and powered above it.
A four hour chart from May:
Since then it has traded above the next higher minor FIbonacci level (2.058), sold off, then found support at the 1.618 level and, since then, traded back up to oscillate around the 2.058 level. That brings us to the present.
An 8 hour chart from this morning:
Classically we should expect at least one more push up to the 2.618 level. That would be above 1.71.
But it would not be surprising to see some more weakness before that push to a new high occurs.
June 10, 2009
GBPUSD--Wednesday, June 10, 2009
A long term look at the upward retracement, on a weekly chart, of an downward impulsive pattern noted back in February.
The high last Wednesday was within 20 or 30 pips of the 61.8% retracement level.
May 29, 2009
GBPUSD--Friday, May 29, 2009
A pattern that finds resistance around current trading level in GBPUSD.
8 hour chart:
If the market blows through this level before the day is out, there is another pattern that would target 1.63.
4 hour chart:
May 20, 2009
GBPUSD--Tuesday, May 20, 2009
An update on a pattern first noted on May 8th post.
4 hour chart:
If one takes the high on May 7th as the top of a new base (alpha), and the subsequent low later that day as the bottom of the new base (beta), the following overlapping pattern appears.
2 hour chart:
Notice the confluence of extended targets right above 1.56.
May 8, 2009
GBPUSD--Friday May 8, 2009
GBPUSD also found resistance at the 2.618 resistance yesterday, falling quickly back to the 1.618 level before finding support. Since then the market has gravitated back towards the 2.058 intermediate level.
April 7, 2009
GBPUSD--Tuesday, April 7, 2009
April 2, 2009
GBPUSD--Thursday, April 2, 2009
Possible target for GBPUSD 1.5176.
A three wave move, with an irregular intermediate wave.
In the interest of pretty chart drawing... the (c) of the irregular B wave played out a nice impulsive move that ended at the 4.236 delta Fibonacci extension.
March 16, 2009
GBPUSD--Monday, March 16, 2009
One quick hourly chart, showing an impulsive pattern from a base formed on Thursday. Notice how the 1.618 level was resistance on Friday and support today. If pattern holds, next target would be 1.4280.
March 12, 2009
GBPUSD--Thursday, March 12, 2009
In a mirror image (yet on shorter time span) of the USDJPY chart posted this morning, have we seen the end of an irregular upward mid-course correction in an ongoing GBPUSD down move?
Is this pattern still operative? Target below 1.32?
March 9, 2009
GBPUSD--Monday, March 9, 2009
After a little trial and error ( or less politely, flailing around), I have (perhaps) found an impulsive pattern for the current downturn in cable.
Looking at the low on February 18th at 1.4092 and the subsequent high on February 23rd as the alpha-beta base, that would posit a 1.618 delta target at 1.3741. We have had a bounce off that level this morning.
A 4 hour chart:
Seen in closer detail on a 1 hour chart:
This rally off the 1.618 target should probably be seen as an opportunity to add shorts. If the pattern is valid, it would project a new low significantly beneath the January low (1.35).
The delta 2.618 target: 1.3173.
February 15, 2009
GBPUSD--Sunday, February 15, 2009
At week end, trying to place the current position of cable in perspective.
From a long term perspective we have an impulsive pattern that completed itself around the 1.35 level. This pattern seen on a weekly and daily charts.
This pattern can be seen in more detail in a series of 8 hour charts.
The move began last summer when gbpusd first began to seriously distance itself from the 2.00 level. After falling from the November 2007 high above 2.11, the market had fallen as low as 1.93 by late January 2008, but until August of 2008, it continued to probe the 2.00 level. The psychology of the market was such that a new bull move above 2.00 seemed plausible. But then in August of 2008 it dropped sharply through 1.90 and, in a 3 wave movement (the second "up" wave short and horizontal) fell to a low of 1.7443 on September 11, 2008.
This low was the end of what would become an alpha wave of an alpha beta base. A subsequent retracement up to a high of 1.8667 on September 25 would form the beta wave.
This alpha-beta base pattern would posit the following:
- A 1.618 delta target zone around 1.6687
- A 2.618 delta target zone around 1.5463
- A 4.236 delta target zone around 1.3483
The subsequent pattern seemed to coalesce around these levels. The initial move down from the beta high stopped at the top end of the zone of the 1.618 target, moved back up, testing and failing to break decisively above the alpha low which began the pattern definition. Then it fell with greater impulsive energry through the 1.618 level, spiking down through the 2.618 level, but finding support right at the bottom of that level's zone.
It then moved back up to the 1.618 level, found resistance and turned around again, falling sharply through the 2.618 level, finally finding some support at the minor Fibonacci 3.33 level in mid November.
From that point until mid January 2009 the market oscillated between the 2.618 level and the 3.33 level (with a slight downward bias--a succession of slightly lower lows).
Then on January 16 it began its final wave down, finding a bottom at the 4.236 delta target zone. on January 23. (The theoretical 4.236 target was 1.3483, actual low was less than 20 pips higher.)
Since then the GBP has bounced above the previous support line slightly above 1.46.
This bounce has come in a three wave corrective pattern that has internal consistency and could be seen to end with the 1.4983 high on Monday, February 9, 2009.
Again, the 1.35 low on January 23 is significant only in that it completed a pattern begun last summer. It is not to say that cable cannot go lower, only that it would require a new downward pattern which has not yet begun to form.
February 10, 2009
GBPUSD--Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Although cable pushed through the 2.618 delta target, the energy of the move up seemed to dissipate there, and it spent most of yesterday gravitating around that level. A sell-off overnight and this morning has probed through the 1.48 level, but--as with the move up--no follow through. There is a minor fibonacci level there which seems to be holding.
February 9, 2009
GBPUSD-Monday, February 9, 2009
Playing around the delta 2.618 target at the moment.
UPDATE 9:45 AM EST
Market beginning to feel comfortable resting above the 2.618 target. Next target, if this is a valid pattern, would be 1.5265.
February 4, 2009
GBPUSD--February 4, 2009
Possiblility of a new impulsive move up (short to medium term pattern).
Alpha-beta base formed yesterday and early this morning. Alpha at 1.4482 and beta at 1.4322. The delta 1.618 target was 1.4580. Top so far today was right under that (1.4576). It has sold off since then, now below the 1.272 level (1.4525). That might prove a point of attraction against a deeper sell off.
30 minute:
5 minute:
If this pattern is valid, the 2.618 delta target would be around 1.4740.
January 26, 2009
GBPUSD-January 26, 2009
December 1, 2008
GBPUSD --Monday, December 1, 2008
November 26, 2008
GBPUSD--Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Daily chart:
And if downturn continues target is 1.3480:
Shorter term pattern:
Notice the conjunction of the larger pattern's 2.618 level (approximately 1.5465) and the 1.272 level of the smaller pattern (aprroximately 1.5440). This was where yesterday's rally ran out of energy, although there are wicks (spikes) going up to 1.55.
November 14, 2008
GBPUSD--Friday, November 14, 2008
September 4, 2008
GBPUSD--Thursday, September 4, 2008
Weekly:
8 hour:
Notice how between August 13th and the 22nd the market found some support around the 1.618 target before continuing its fall.
1 hour:
July 2, 2008
GBPUSD, Wednesday, July 2, 2008
January 30, 2008
Cable Delta Wave Completed
From the impulsive move begun last week:
See how the 1.618 delta level provided an area of (rough) support.
Entire movement (with theoretical high):
Entire movement with actual high (9 pips above theoretical high):
January 15, 2008
Cable Shows Life--January 15, 2008
The short covering rally has begun in cable, fueled by the release of UK CPI figures remaining above BOE target and negative US retail sales numbers. But perhaps just as important is the maintenance of the support at 1.9525-35 mentioned in yesterday's post.
Last nights low around 1.9525 could be seen as a beta, with the previous high in the european morning around 1.9646 as alpha.
First, a 30 minute chart:
And to add some perspective, a 4 hour chart:
January 14, 2008
Cable Update-January 14, 2008
The cable rally did not happen last week, but the pattern still holds. Market is tremendously oversold and lingering directly above the 61.8% retracement of the entire delta wave rally from October 2006 until November 2007.
January 9, 2008
Cable-January 9, 2008
UPDATE at 9;00 AM
Another pattern--the original price pulse from December charts.
See posts when pattern first charted:
UPDATE at 1:30 PM
And an alternative possiblity:
(See entry from December 19.)
UPDATE at 3:40 PM
Long term going back to rally from October 2006.
January 7, 2008
Cable
