2 hour chart:

1 hour chart:

And 30 minute chart:

The same pattern on the March future (daily chart):

And 2 hour:

1.2820 x
1.2815 x
1.2810 x x x
1.2805 x x x x x x
1.2800 x x x x x x x x
1.2795 x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2790 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2785 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2780 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2775 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2770 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2765 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2760 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2755 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2750 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2745 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2740 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2735 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2730 x x x x x x x
1.2725 x x x x x x x
1.2720 x x x
1.2715 x x
1.2710 x x
1.2705 x x
1.2700 x x x x
1.2695 x x x x x x x
1.2690 x x x x x x x
1.2685 x x x x x x
1.2680 x x x
1.2675 x x
1.2670 x
1.2665 x

Trading around 1.2670.

One possible downside pattern that would call for a further move down to 1.2478.

Charts from yesterday afternoon:

And a 1 hour chart from this morning:

Notice how prices since Sunday night have corresponded with the internal levels between the 2.618 and 4.236 targets.

YOU ARE LOVELIER THAN THE SKY AND THE SEA

When you are in love you must leave
Leave your wife leave your child
Leave your friend leave your sweetheart
Leave your lover
When you're in love you must leave

The world is full of black men and black women
Of women men men women
Look at the fine shops
That cab that man that woman that cab
And all the beautiful things to buy

There is the the air the wind
The mountains the water sky earth
Children animals
Plants and coal

Learn to sell buy resell
Give take give take
When you're in love you must know how
To sing run eat drink
Whistle
And learn to work

When you're in love you must leave
Don't build a nest between two breasts
Breathe walk leave go away

I take my bath and I look
I see the mouth I know
The hand the leg The the eye
I take my bath and look

The whole world is always there
Life full of surprising things
I leave the drugstore
I have just weighed myself
I weigh my 80 kilos
I love you

BLAISE CENDRARS
Feuilles de route (Travel Notes)
1924

Price distribution hourly bars from Asian open, December 14 until Dec 16, 6:00 AM EST.

1.3070 x
1.3060 x x x
1.3050 x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3040 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3030 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x < - - 2.618 = 1.3036
1.3020 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3010 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3000 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2990 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2980 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2970 x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.2960 x x x x x x x
1.2950 x x x
1.2940 x x

More likely to see a bounce up from here before the pattern could continue down to the next target.

Price distribution since Monday Asian open. Notice the two distributions around the 1.618 and 2.618 levels:

1.3380 x x
1.3370 x x x x
1.3360 x x x x x x x x <-- midpoint (50%) of base
1.3350 x x x x x x x x
1.3340 x x x x x x x
1.3330 x x x x x
1.3320 x x x
1.3310 x x x
1.3300 x x x
1.3290 x x x
1.3280 x x x x x
1.3270 x x x x x
1.3260 x x x x x x
1.3250 x x x x x x x
1.3240 x x x x
1.3230 x x x x
1.3220 x x x x x x
1.3210 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3200 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3190 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x <-- 1.618
1.3180 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3170 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3160 x x x x x x x
1.3150 x
1.3140 x
1.3130 x
1.3120 x
1.3110 x
1.3100 x x x x x
1.3090 x x x x x
1.3080 x x x x x
1.3070 x x x x x
1.3060 x x x x x x
1.3050 x x x x x x x x x
1.3040 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3030 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x <-- 2.618
1.3020 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3010 x x x x x x x x x x x
1.3000 x x x x x x x x
1.2990 x x x x x x x x
1.2980 x x x x x x x
1.2970 x x x x x x
1.2960 x x x x x
1.2950 x x
1.2940 x x

A weekly chart of the nearest gold future showing an impulsive move beginning from a base formed during the summer of 2010. Early waves were roughly contained within the 2.618 and 1.618 targets. The next higher target (4.236 times the base) did not provide resistance. As sometimes happens, the opposite occurred. Once through this level, the market moved almost vertically, up 300 dollars in a little over 3 weeks. The next level was 6.854 times the base, around 1900. Here price action became erratic as the move finally exhausted itself. (A similar pattern played out in EURUSD in late 2007-early 2008.)

In the move off this high, the 4.236 level, ignored by the market on the way up, has become support on the way down. We have not closed on a weekly basis below that level (around 1618).

If we look at the internal Fibonacci levels of the entire impulsive move, we can see that the spike low in late September failed at the 50% level. We are approaching once more the 1618 level, approximately 38.2% of the entire impulsive move. A weekly close below this level could see us working down towards the earlier spike low and possibly lower. A 61.8% retracement would take us to around 1440.

Price action still seems to be conforming to the impulsive pattern noted last week.
Friday's close held the 2.618 Fibonacci extension around 1242. Minor resistance is still around 1258. We probed higher than that level on Friday morning before the cash market opened, but failed to achieve an hourly close above it. This morning we are again bumping up against this level. Once price gets securely above it, the next major target for this pattern would be around 1279.

After trading around the 2.618 Fibonacci target level, we have traded up to the next minor level (around 1258). In the few hours that have passed since the European open this level seems to have (at least temporarily) capped the advance.

The next major level up (Fibonacci 4.236) would be around 1279.

Here are the charts I was looking at (from 9:00 AM yesterday):

You can see how the two patterns are related, the base of the second pattern being roughly the first and second impulsive targets of the first. Both projected a higher target around 1242.30 - 1242.40.

And from this morning, here is how we have progressed into those patterns:

As you can see, that target level has become not resistance but a central level around which the market has traded sideways since yesterday's close.

And what if these patterns, after a pause, were to continue to work to the upside?

Here the upside targets diverge. One target would be right around 1300, the other lower, around 1279.

First, a 15 minute chart showing the impulsive move yesterday, and the long drawn out sideways (but slightly irregular) action since then. Notice how this action has stayed mainly within the bounds of the 2.618 and 1.618 impulsive targets (including this morning's high).

And then a 5 minute chart.

While the move up to the high this morning right above 1.35 looks like it might be impulsive, a closer examination shows a more corrective structure. First an A wave up, then a B wave which retraces 50% of A, then a C wave which is exactly 1.618 times the length of A. Taking into account that the high was also the initial impulsive target of yesterday's move, it seems we are still churning sideways, and any impulsive action, either up or down, will come from a base pattern yet to form.

The cash SPX on an hourly chart:

The Dec ES future. Here the levels from the initial cash market basing pattern are used (adjusted for the Dec basis):

And just in case these charts seem to optimistic, there is always the chance the pattern could continue to the next exponential Fibonacci target (4.236). That would take us below 1100.