Pure Guesswork

Impulsive move still seems to be working from base built in early February.

The 2.618 extension of this base formed resistance starting on Friday, February 19th. But when, after a healthy retracement, the market powered through this level last week, the target became the 4.236 extension. That is 1144. There was some minor resistance at an intermediate Fibonacci level around 1125. Friday opened above that level and went straight up from there.

A daily chart:

And an hourly chart showing the markets interaction with Fibonacci resistance levels in more detail.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

2 quick charts after close:

First a classic Elliott ABC pattern on the weekly chart, with a slightly irregular sideways B. (Top of A wave at 930 in late May. B correction ends in July.) Projecting a C top 1.618 times above the level of A would get us around 1093.

Then a daily chart showing impulsive pattern leading to current rally. 2.618 Fibonacci target would land somewhere around 1097.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 4:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

In this pattern, the decline last Thursday, May 7, is seen as the first (A) wave of a 3 wave correction. The recovery on Friday, May 8--with a slightly higher high--is the B wave. The lows yesterday were 1.618 times below that initial A wave low.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Update on this post from the start of the present rally on March 10. So far nothing has happened to change the pattern shown in the charts from that post.

Here is an updated chart with the same Fibonacci pattern projected onto it.

• An alpha-betabase projecting downward. Alpha low last October 28th. Beta high on November 4th.
• This would project an initial downward delta 1.618 extension around 745. A low at 741 was hit on November 21st and the market then rallied.


• The rally ran out of steam at the 0.328 level of the original base pattern on January 6th. The high on that day was 943.9. (The 0.382 level was projected at 945.6)


• First support came at the intermediate 1.272 level (around 801.2). There was a low around 804 on January 20th and a subsequent weak rally up toward the 0.786 internal Fibonacci level.


• This rally failed, after 2 attempts to break through the 0.786 level, and on February 23rd the market flirted with the 1.618 delta level touched in November. There was a brief bounce at that level but by the end of the month the market was in full bear mode again.


• With an excess of negative sentiment (the question no longer seeming to be if Western Civilization was going to come to an end, but exactly on what day it was to occur) the market found a kind of wobbly support at the 2.058 intermediate Fibonacci level.


• The current rally began there. It broke swiftly through the next upward level at 1.618, found a little resistance at the 1.272 level at the end of last week, and presently is headed back to the original alpha level of the base which began this pattern.

But if the rally begins to lose energy as it approaches that level, we could see ourselves making our way to the original delta 2.618 target. That is to say a significant bottom around 582.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 5:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Going back to this post uploaded just before the rally started last Tuesday... We saw support around the 2.058 fibonacci level and an inside day on Monday following a severely negative (from a sentiment and price level) Friday.

Still expect an eventual resumption of the downtrend, with a low around 580. Will resistance come in around 801?

Looking at it on an hourly chart.

Possibility of market gravitating around the 1.618 (745) level, the low in January and late February, right before the last thrust down.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 6:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Could the bear market rally long awaited and frequently despaired of be about to begin? Even Marc Faber is calling for it now. THe downturn--despite all the negative chatter--paused around a fibonacci level yesterday (2.058--or aprroximately 674). And for those who care about such things, it was an inside day.

Even if we do get the rally, this pattern, if valid, would project a completion at a lower level (2.618), which would correspond to roughly 580 on S&P.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 9:06 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

And that is simply that when you look at indices broader than the Dow Jones 30--that is to say, when you look closer to reality--stocks have been in a bear market since 2000. The high in November 2007 can be seen as the end of a bear market rally--a "B" wave in Elliott Wave parlance. This is not particularly bullish or bearish for current situation. But still . . . a difference is a difference.

Meanwhile this week we have broken a long term trend line constructed from the 1982 and 1990 lows in the S&P 500.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 8:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

A quick update of some charts from last November.

Working from the 1990 low as the start of the impulsive move--with everything from the 2000 high as a three wave correction. Target still somewhere between 550 and 600.

A possible impulsive pattern down on the daily charts:

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 6:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

First the long term--a quarterly chart:

The market has traded down close to the gently sloped uptrend line formed from the 1982 and 1990 lows. Another more steeply sloped line joins the 1990 and 1995 lows. That line held in the bear market decline of 2000-2003, but was soundly broken in the current sell-off.
The region of the 2003 low and the low of last week is approximately a 61.8% retracement of the move from the 1990 low to the 2000 high. The next level down would be in the region of 550 to 600.

Now two shorter term patterns in the current move down.

First an impulsive move with an alpha low at 1200 and a beta high at 1313. The 4.236 delta is at 835. This pattern can be seen as having been completed in the panic sell-off of Friday, October 10.
But it was not the end of the decline.
There is a new pattern that can be seen with an alpha low at 845 and a beta high at 1007. The delta 1.618 target is around 745, basically the region of the lows on Thursday/Friday, November 20-21.

We have rallied off these lows, the initial rationale being the announcement that Geithner would be Secretary of the Treasury for Obama.
If the downtrend continues, the 2.618 delta target would be around 582, which would also coincide with the area of the next downward fibonacci support seen in relation to the long term bull move from 1982 to 2000.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

1.618 delta target was 745.10, low in final sell-off was 746.15, before bouncing a little at the close.

This morning the market opened up but found resistance at yesterday morning's support around 775. Since then we have sold down to the region of yesterday's close.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Showing the internal fibonacci levels of the rally from 1990 to 2000.

More than a DJ 30 chart, the S&P shows a bear market that began at the 2000 top and is still ongoing. The 2002-2003 bottom was a 61.8% retracement of the entire move from the 1990 low. Since then we traded up to a 2007 top less than 25 S&P points higher than the 2000 high (1576 rather than 1552).

We are now very close to touching that 61.8% retracement level again. To give some perspective of our relationship to the move up, we are trading in a range seen in the spring of 1997.

The next fibonacci level down would be between 550 and 600, which would take us back to territory seen in the autumn of 1995.

The grey line shows the slope of the initial rally in the 1980's before the exponential action of the 1990's. We are getting close to that line.

UPDATE--End of Trading Day
The 775 level did provide support early on, as the market bounced off this level and then traded into positive territory. But once again heavy selling came in during afternoon trading and the market easily broke through this support.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 6:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Near the close. A nice rally, but this downtrend line on an hourly chart shows a reason not to get too excited just yet.

UPDATE--After the Close
The line is broken in the tremendous rush into stocks at the close--the reverse of the panic selling we have seen recently at the close. Panic buying.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 3:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

"People are scared to death," said Bill Stone, chief investment strategist for PNC Wealth Management....
Are we capitulating?

So far it has been three steps down. Last August was 23.6%, then after the phony rally of October, we had a low in March at 38.2%. Then today we hit 50%.
Shown in greater detail on weekly chart.

Of course, if this 50% level doesn't hold, we have a rather long way down to the next level of support. Another 100 S&P points or so.

UPDATE AT MARKET CLOSE--4:00 PM
Not good. After bouncing off that 50 % fibonacci level around 1:30 PM or so, and then trading up 30 points, the last hour saw a steady renewal of selling, a new low at 1155.9, and a close near enough to say we closed at the low of the day (1156.2).

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 1:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

A chart showing the correlation between movements in stock futures (S&P) and oil futures over the course of one trading day, Wednesday, July 2, 2008 (chart covers trading day in stock market--9:30 AM to 4:00 PM). Data is percentage move from opening (i.e. 9:30 AM) price. The oil futures line is inverted. This is based on 5 minute price data. I admit to being slightly astonished at how closely stock futures shadowed oil on an intraday basis. Wednesday, July 2, was the day the media talked about U.S. stocks entering bear territory. They seemed to have been led there by the nose by the oil market.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Following up on the last chart of the March 29, 2008 post

The question which ended that post seems in the process of being answered in the affirmative. We are falling towards the 23.6% level, after having topped out at the 61.8% level on May 19th. The market fell from that level back down to the 38.2% level, then ranged between 50% and 38.2% before finally breaking through the 38.2%support level last Friday (June 6).
The next support should be roughly at 1325. The low on April 15 was 1324.4 The 23.6% line comes in on the chart at 1327.5.

A MORE BEARISH SCENARIO
The monthly chart, showing the impulsive move from October 2002 low to July 2007 high, with the following irregular correction ending in mid-March 2008 with a 38.2% correction of the entire move.

What if the pattern ending at the 38.2% retracement level in March was only the first leg of an extended correction?
If the lows of March are taken out, the next support would be at the 50% level around 1160, and then the 61.8% level around 1060 (returning to the lows of August 2004).

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 5:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Following the pattern of the March 18, 2008 post, the impulsive high is seen as having occurred in July of 2007, not October. The October high is an irregular "B" or "Y" wave.
On a monthly chart:

The "A" move down, with a low in August 2007, retraced almost exactly 23.6% of the entire move from October 2002. The "C" move down--following the irregular "B" wave--retraced almost exactly 38.2% of the move.

On a weekly chart (showing the internal fibonacci level of the entire A-B-C pattern):

Looking at the rally after the "C" low in March, it first ran out of steam at a 61.8% retracement level (of the entire decline from July 2007 to March 2008). It then fell back to the 38.2% level. Yesterday it pulled back from the 50% level.

Shown on a daily chart:

Having bounced off that 50% level, will we now fall back to 23.%? This would be 1327.5, close to the 1324.4 low in mid-April.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 7:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

And then taking the actual high last Friday, May 2nd as the delta 1.618 and getting internal fibonacci levels between there and the beta low on April 15th:

Bottom line, look for real support at 1370 or so.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

If, as Richard Russell states in his article in this weekend's Barron's, Dow Theory is indicating this stock market rally has a lot further to go, we might picture an alpha-beta base set up like this:

Resistance at the 1.618 delta around 1425. We entered that area of resistance on Friday.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 1:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Irregular correction beginning with last July's top? Z = 1.618 * X.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 5:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 1:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Obviously we won't have to wait long to find out. Tomorrow could very well prove this chart meaningless.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 5:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

A trendline from the March 2007 to the August 2007 held last week.
But today it might possibly be tested again.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 10:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The bounce up off the 2.618 level did not hold Friday afternoon.
Next stop below 1400?

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 11:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Selling off pitilessly. But found a downward price pulse with a delta 2.618 level near the lows made within the last half hour. Will it hold? Or is this simply a pause before a continued afternoon of selling.

Next stop down would be below 1400.

Posted by Pure Guesswork at 11:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)